I. Executive Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nFirst, let’s analyze Li Xiang. He is a middle-aged man, full of energy, and genuinely wants to make the company successful. He comes from a technical background, but now that the company has grown so large, he no longer has the time to think about technology or to spark innovative thinking. In an era of technological competition, stopping innovation means fading into oblivion. His marketing ability is quite mediocre\u2014better than some, but lacking compared to the top tier. He doesn’t have Elon Musk’s audacious craziness, nor Lei Jun’s nonchalant ease. He probably doesn’t have the energy to engage in capital operations or hype up his own stock. This whole situation is enough to give him a splitting headache.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then there is Xie Yan, a technical talent poached from Huawei. But anyone poached from elsewhere is, at best, capable of holding the fort, and rarely a Zhuge Liang who will devote himself entirely to the end. To be precise, Xie Yan is a learner and executor of technology, not an originator. Because of the inertia of his career path, he has held executive positions at several large companies. While this is a mark of excellence, it is also the dull knife that grinds down one’s aggressive edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ma Donghui (President), the head of the intelligent vehicle business. As a co-founder, Ma Donghui is Li Auto’s “anchor”. In 2025, he took over the newly established “Intelligent Vehicle Group”, overseeing the end-to-end closed loop of R&D, supply, sales, and service. Among the three, Mr. Ma is a calm and steady elder. He can stabilize the troops and steady the ship, but he cannot break through the encirclement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is no question about the execution and management capabilities of these three, but their ability to innovate is highly questionable. Moreover, putting these three together makes for an excellent leadership, startup, and execution team. However, there is always a higher mountain. In a place without lions or tigers, they could absolutely dominate one side. But they have run into them. And the prey on the grassland is becoming scarce day by day… (This is the reality of the Chinese national condition).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My evaluation of the three is merely a gut feeling. But Li Auto’s performance has confirmed this feeling. There are no breakthrough innovations in technology, nor in marketing. They lack the killer weapon to break out of the siege.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because the auto market is a red ocean, execution and management capabilities can only help you survive longer. Only marketing ability combined with innovation capability can help you live better. All other management refinements are like a beautiful homestay with no guests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
II. Consumer Environment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nMainland China is also following in Hong Kong’s footsteps, slowly entering an aging society. The demand from people born before 1970 has decreased, showing a polarization: they have either accepted their fate and have no intention of buying a car, or they are already successful and have long owned cars, with a very low rate of replacement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The group born between 1970 and 2000 has the highest car ownership rate, mostly having bought gas cars ten years ago. A large portion of these people have either become credit blacklists due to bank debts, or are well on their way to becoming one. The customer base for electric vehicles is precisely those within this group who haven’t turned “black” and are still in decent economic shape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now let’s look at the next group, the Millennials, born after 2000. This is where the real battle for customers is fought. But as mentioned, the birth rate is not what it used to be; the population base is declining, and so is the customer base. Furthermore, due to the overall downturn in the market economy, the Chinese people’s desire to keep up with the Joneses has faded. Unlike before, where “if you buy one, I must buy one too,” now it’s “you drive your BMW, I ride my bike, it has nothing to do with me.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
III. Competitive Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nIn the high-end price battlefield, the Chinese people’s psychological preference for the BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi) hierarchy still exists. Li Auto’s high pricing has not cultivated a high-end mindset among Chinese consumers. This kind of mindset cannot be formed in a short period of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The low-end battlefield has been occupied by BYD. BYD’s first-mover advantage and scale advantage cannot be replicated simply by throwing money at it. So, in the low-price segment, BYD has already claimed the throne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for the top players in the EV game\u2014Tesla, Xiaomi, and Huawei. These three giants either don’t make a move, or when they do, they can crush many people. Li Auto is in this awkward position: unable to beat the masters, and with a bunch of rangers behind desperately backstabbing them. Alas, even if Jack Ma came, he couldn’t handle it. It’s going to be tough for Li Xiang.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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The ideal is full, but reality is bony. - US Stock Risk Analyst<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/us-stock-risk-analyst-1465666.ingress-earth.ewp.live\/?p=12\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The ideal is full, but reality is bony. - US Stock Risk Analyst\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I. Executive Analysis First, let’s analyze Li Xiang. He is a middle-aged man, full of energy, and genuinely wants to make the company successful. He comes from a technical background, but now that the company has grown so large, he no longer has the time to think about technology or to spark innovative thinking. 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